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 noise covariance






Joint Estimation of Sea State and Vessel Parameters Using a Mass-Spring-Damper Equivalence Model

Tiwari, Ranjeet K., Sgarioto, Daniel, Graham, Peter, Skvortsov, Alexei, Arulampalam, Sanjeev, Ranasinghe, Damith C.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Real-time sea state estimation is vital for applications like shipbuilding and maritime safety. Traditional methods rely on accurate wave-vessel transfer functions to estimate wave spectra from onboard sensors. In contrast, our approach jointly estimates sea state and vessel parameters without needing prior transfer function knowledge, which may be unavailable or variable. We model the wave-vessel system using pseudo mass-spring-dampers and develop a dynamic model for the system. This method allows for recursive modeling of wave excitation as a time-varying input, relaxing prior works' assumption of a constant input. We derive statistically consistent process noise covariance and implement a square root cubature Kalman filter for sensor data fusion. Further, we derive the Posterior Cramer-Rao lower bound to evaluate estimator performance. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations and data from a high-fidelity validated simulator confirm that the estimated wave spectrum matches methods assuming complete transfer function knowledge.


Simultaneous Calibration of Noise Covariance and Kinematics for State Estimation of Legged Robots via Bi-level Optimization

Cheng, Denglin, Kang, Jiarong, Xiong, Xiaobin

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate state estimation is critical for legged and aerial robots operating in dynamic, uncertain environments. A key challenge lies in specifying process and measurement noise covariances, which are typically unknown or manually tuned. In this work, we introduce a bi-level optimization framework that jointly calibrates covariance matrices and kinematic parameters in an estimator-in-the-loop manner. The upper level treats noise covariances and model parameters as optimization variables, while the lower level executes a full-information estimator. Differentiating through the estimator allows direct optimization of trajectory-level objectives, resulting in accurate and consistent state estimates. We validate our approach on quadrupedal and humanoid robots, demonstrating significantly improved estimation accuracy and uncertainty calibration compared to hand-tuned baselines. Our method unifies state estimation, sensor, and kinematics calibration into a principled, data-driven framework applicable across diverse robotic platforms.




Online Linear Regression with Paid Stochastic Features

Merlis, Nadav, Jang, Kyoungseok, Cesa-Bianchi, Nicolò

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study an online linear regression setting in which the observed feature vectors are corrupted by noise and the learner can pay to reduce the noise level. In practice, this may happen for several reasons: for example, because features can be measured more accurately using more expensive equipment, or because data providers can be incentivized to release less private features. Assuming feature vectors are drawn i.i.d. from a fixed but unknown distribution, we measure the learner's regret against the linear predictor minimizing a notion of loss that combines the prediction error and payment. When the mapping between payments and noise covariance is known, we prove that the rate $\sqrt{T}$ is optimal for regret if logarithmic factors are ignored. When the noise covariance is unknown, we show that the optimal regret rate becomes of order $T^{2/3}$ (ignoring log factors). Our analysis leverages matrix martingale concentration, showing that the empirical loss uniformly converges to the expected one for all payments and linear predictors.